Social Contours & COVID-19

How have risk behaviours changed over time?

TRENDS
Risk Behaviour - Places visited in the last 7 days

3-week moving averages, weighted data, Regression of p=high/[high+low&moderate] on week: Slope = 0.016, std. error = 0.00126, Z = 12.772

TRENDS
Risk Behaviour - Work situation (paid or volunatry)

3-week moving averages, weighted data, Regression of p=high/[high+low&moderate] on week: Slope = 0.0077, std. error = 0.00149, Z = 5.166

TRENDS
Risk of Exposure - At Work

3-week moving averages, weighted data, Regression of p=high/[high+low&moderate] on week: Slope = 0.00948, std. error = 0.00152, Z = 6.254

TRENDS
Risk Behaviour - Shopping for food

3-week moving averages, weighted data, Regression of p=high/[high+low&moderate] on week: Slope = 0.00774, std. error = 0.00112, Z = 6.904

How have mitigation behaviours changed over time?

Trends: Overall Mitigation
6 MITIGATION BEHAVIOURS

(1) mitigation if suspected infection (2) handwashing frequency (3) social distancing
(4) not touching face (5) wearing a mask (6) personal protective equipment

3-week moving averages, weighted data, Regression of p=high/[high+low&moderate] on week: Slope = -0.00751 std. error = 0.0013 Z = 5.782

Trends: Mitigation
SOCIAL DISTANCING

3-week moving averages, weighted data, Regression of p=high/[high+low&moderate] on week: Slope = -0.00563, std. error = 0.00144, Z= 3.897

Trends: Mitigation
FACE-MASKING

3-week moving averages, weighted data, Regression of p=high/[high+low&moderate] on week: Slope = 0.01829 std. error = 0.0017Z = 10.647

Previous Results

June 2020 | n=1033

TRENDS: Perceptions of risk changed over time

PERCEPTION OF RISK
those who say likely to 'get very sick or die' if infected

3-week moving average, weighted data, Regression of p=high/[high+low&moderate] on week: Slope = 0.00669, std. error = 0.00116, Z = 5.750

PERCEPTION OF RISK
those who say very concerned about spreading the virus

3-week moving average, weighted data, Regression of p=high/[high+low&moderate] on week: Slope = -0.00295 std. error = 0.00143, Z = 2.062

PERCEPTION OF RISK
those who say Coronavirus is a ‘big threat’ to the health of community

3-week moving average, weighted data, Regression of p=high/[high+low&moderate] on week: Slope = 0.00441, std. error = 0.0017, Z = 2.600

PERCEPTION OF RISK
those who say people are taking precautions

3-week moving average, weighted data, Regression of p=high/[high+low&moderate] on week: Slope = -0.01737, std. error = 0.00131, Z = 13.293

PERCEPTION OF RISK
those who say government is handling the pandemic well

3-week moving average, weighted data, Regression of p=high/[high+low&moderate] on week: Slope = -0.01885, std. error = 0.00132, Z = 14.299

At this stage of the pandemic, my government is taking the steps needed to stop the spread of the virus.
Round 5 - September 2020

PERCEPTION OF RISK
those who say government is handling the pandemic well, by gender

Vaccination Uptake

TRENDS
If a vaccine were available, would you get it?

3-week moving average, weighted data,
Regression of p=yes/[yes+no+don’t know] on week: Slope = -0.00982, std. error = 0.00115, Z = 8.549

If a vaccine were available, would you get it?
Round 5 - September 2020

If a vaccine were available, would you get it (by age of respondent)?

Net Behavioural Risk by Zones

Behavioural Risk Score by Saskatchewan Zones and Sub-Zones

Social Contours and COVID-19 Survey
Rounds 1-5, May 4 - September 30, 2020

Behavioural Risk Score by Saskatchewan Public School Division Zones

High, moderate, and low behavioural risk by location

Saskatchewan COVID-19 reporting zones
Rounds 1-5, May 4 - September 30, 2020

Behavioural risk hot spot analysis by location

Saskatchewan -September 2020 (Round 5)

Masks

Masks: Saskatchewan Sample

Behaviours (among mask wearers)
June 2020 | n=1033

91% maintain physical distancing all or most of the time (v. 70% didn’t wear)
98% always/most times wash their hands after being away from their home (v 85%)
89% always/most times try to avoid touching their face when out in public (v 74%)

Risk-Perception
June 2020 | n=1033

68% wore mask all/most time who said they will get "very sick" or die if infected (v 30%)
65% wore mask who said COVID-19 is a "very big threat" to the health of their community (v 14%)
49% wore mask among who were very concerned about spreading the virus to others (v 23%)

Mandatory Face Mask-Wearing
July 1-16 2020 | n=669

In the same Social contours and COVID-19 survey in Saskatchewan, we asked: “when should wearing a face mask be mandatory?” In July:

62%, a clear majority, said face masks should be mandatory inside a building at any time;
15% any outdoor public space; and
14% anytime when outside your property.

Only 11% responded that face masks should ‘never’ be mandatory. One in five (21%) indicated that they didn’t know or weren’t sure.

Those who indicated that mask wearing should be mandatory presented a similar profile to those who wore a mask frequently: older respondents, women, and those who perceived they would get very sick or die if they were to get the virus, were concerned about spreading to others, and felt COVID-19 was a big threat to their community.

Older respondents (65 or older, at 93%), women (89%) more likely to respond masks should be mandatory when in public or inside a building (compared to ‘never’).
Peoples’ perception of personal risk or spreading it to others or level of threat in the community is strongly correlated with likelihood to indicate mandatory mask wearing.
Only 27% of those who said they will not get a vaccine if one were to available indicated mandating mask wearing, compared to 94% who said they will get a vaccine.

Masks: Saskatoon Sub-sample

Subsample Analysis, June (Round 2) and July (Round 3)
Posted Aug 26, 2020

Since the beginning of June, we have been asking Saskatchewan respondents to Social Contours and Covid-19 survey:

In the last 7 days, when you were inside a building (other than your home) where it was hard to maintain social distancing, how often did you wear a face mask?

The results below are based on the subsample of 1269 Saskatoon respondents in June (Round 2) and July (Round 3):[1]

484 (38%) said they wore a mask all or most of the time when they couldn’t physically distance

103 (8%) said some of the time
259 (20%) little or none of the time
423 (33%) said they did not leave home or did not answer the question

For those whom this question was relevant (i.e. 846), 69% said they wore a mask all, most, or some of the time when they couldn’t physically distance inside a building. Those who are older (65+ years), women, and those with professional or advanced level education are more likely to indicate they wore masks all/most or some of the time.

Perception of personal risk was related to mask wearing among Saskatoon respondents. Those who said if they get COVID they will get very sick or die, are more likely to wear mask all/most/some of the time vs those who said they will not get very sick at all (77% vs 55%).

Saskatoon respondents concerned about spreading the virus to others or felt that COVID-19 was a “very big threat” to our community were more likely to wear mask:

Those very concerned they would spread the virus to others were 2x as likely to wear masks frequently, compared to those who were slightly or hardly concerned (55% vs 46%).
88% of those who said COVID is a ‘very big’ threat to the health of their community wore masks frequently, versus only 27% who said that COVID is a “very small” threat—more than 3-fold difference.

We also found that those who wear masks frequently are more likely to also report other practices that are known to prevent the spread of the virus (i.e. risk mitigation):

when out in public, almost all frequent mask wearers (80%) maintain physical distancing all or most of the time;
most (74%) always wash their hands after being away from their home; and
just over half (76%) always try to avoid touching their face when out in public.

Summary: Our timely survey shows that more than half of Saskatoon residents have adopted the new practice of wearing a face mask all or most of the time. Those concerned about spreading the virus to others and those who see the virus as a bigger threat to their community are frequent mask wearers. Mask wearing does not make people less concerned about other healthy practices; on the contrary, Saskatoon respondents who wear masks frequently are also very likely to follow public health recommendations regarding physical distancing, hand washing, and not touching their face.

_______

[1] The August (Round 4) survey is currently in the field.

Nazeem Muhajarine and Social contours study team. Social contours and COVID-19: Using metrics and data to guide the reopening and reintegration process in Saskatchewan. Saskatchewan Population Health and Evaluation Research Unit (SPHERU). 20 August 2020.

School-Parenting

PERCEPTIONS: Parents/Caregivers of School-Aged Children

How comfortable are you with children returning to full-time, face-to-face classroom education in September?
July 16-Aug 21 (n=449); H30

As this chart shows, the majority of respondents, about 80%, indicated they were uncomfortable with children returning to school in September.

What is your current plan for schooling your children in September?
July 16-Aug 21 (n=357); H31

Plan	n	%
Homeschooling/online schooling supervised by a parent	69	19.3
Homeschooling/online schooling supervised by another family member or caregiver	8	2.2
Sending to school because I have no other option	190	53.2
Sending to school because I believe it is safe	90	25.2
Sending to school because I believe it is safe	90	25.2

Level of Comfort with children returning to classroom education by current plan for schooling in September
Crosstab: H31 and H31; Fisher’s Exact Test p-value<0.001

Plan for Schooling	Uncomfortable (n)	Comfortable (n)	Total
Homeschooling/online schooling supervised by a parent	66	3	69
Homeschooling/online schooling supervised by another family member or caregiver	8	0	8
Sending to school because I have no other option	173	17	190
Sending to school because I believe it is safe	21	69	90
Total	268	89	357

How comfortable are you with children returning to full-time, face-to-face classroom education in September?
by grade(s) of school-aged child(ren)
July 16-Aug 21 (n=449)

As this chart shows, across all grade levels, K to 12, the majority of respondents, three out of four, indicated they were uncomfortable with children returning to school in September.

How comfortable are you with children returning to full-time, face-to-face classroom education in September?
by grade(s) of school-aged child(ren) - stratified by “current plan for schooling” their child(ren)
July 16-Aug 21 (n=449)

When we breakdown respondents’ comfort level and grades by current plan for schooling in September, a clear difference is seen: respondents who indicated they will be home/online schooling were clearly uncomfortable with their children returning to school; the younger the child, the more uncomfortable.

Results

Social Contours & COVID-19

Risk and Mitigation Factors

Risk Exposure and Behaviours